Here’s what’s happening in the global economy 11/2025



The Federal Reserve is moving ahead with another interest rate cut this week, expected to lower its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to around four percent. But here’s the challenge: the Fed is acting with limited visibility. Because of the ongoing government shutdown, key economic data like inflation and employment reports aren’t being released. That means policymakers are making decisions without their usual guideposts. Economists are calling it “the Fed in a fog.” While lower rates could ease borrowing costs for households and businesses, they also risk reigniting inflation if consumer demand rebounds too quickly. Investors are watching closely for any clues on whether this is the final cut of the year or just the beginning of a longer easing cycle.

Meanwhile, American consumers are growing more cautious. The Conference Board’s latest survey shows U.S. consumer confidence has slipped to its lowest level in six months. People are increasingly worried about job security and rising prices. The decline is sharpest among younger workers and lower-income households, who are feeling the pinch of higher living costs. This is important because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If sentiment keeps weakening, retail sales and holiday spending could slow down, putting additional pressure on growth.

At the same time, there’s a bit of good news in housing. Mortgage rates have fallen for the third straight month, hitting a thirteen-month low at about six-point-three percent for a thirty-year fixed loan. That’s the lowest since late last year and could help stabilize the housing market. But affordability remains a problem. Home prices are still high, and many buyers are waiting for more signs of stability before jumping back in. Analysts say if rates stay near six percent, home sales could pick up slightly in early twenty-twenty-six.

The government shutdown, however, continues to cast a shadow over everything. Now entering its third week, the closure is estimated to be costing the economy around fifteen billion dollars per week in lost productivity. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees remain furloughed, and agencies like the Labor Department and the Census Bureau are unable to publish data that markets rely on. Without that data, the Fed and Wall Street are left to guess what’s really happening beneath the surface. If the shutdown drags on, economists warn it could shave up to half a percentage point from fourth-quarter GDP growth.

Former President Donald Trump has also reentered the conversation, criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates faster. In a series of posts, Trump said the central bank is “moving too slowly” and hurting U.S. competitiveness. The comments come as the twenty-twenty-six election season starts to heat up, raising fresh questions about the Fed’s independence. Most investors expect Powell to stay the course and focus on data once the government reopens.

Globally, the International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning about the world economy. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut its forecast for global growth in twenty-twenty-five to just two-point-seven percent, calling the environment “fragile and uncertain.” The report cites persistent inflation, high government debt, and weak trade flows as major headwinds. Advanced economies like Europe and Japan are barely growing, while emerging markets such as India and Indonesia remain bright spots. The IMF says countries need to rebuild fiscal buffers and resist protectionism to support long-term recovery.

China, however, continues to struggle with its property market crisis. Developers like Evergrande and Country Garden remain in deep trouble, weighed down by enormous debt and unfinished housing projects. Construction activity has dropped nearly thirty percent this year, dragging on consumer confidence and local government revenues. Beijing has stepped in with targeted credit support and new public housing programs, but private investment is still sluggish. Economists warn that without a stronger rebound in real estate, China’s overall growth could fall below four percent next year — well below its pre-pandemic levels.

Energy markets are also seeing renewed volatility. Oil prices briefly surged past ninety dollars a barrel after new clashes in the Middle East, before sliding back into the mid-eighties as OPEC signaled it would maintain current production levels. Traders expect price swings to continue through the winter, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve. For consumers, energy costs remain a major wild card for inflation, especially if global shipping routes are disrupted again.

In the technology sector, Nvidia is making headlines after announcing a partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy to build a new generation of AI supercomputers. The deal highlights Washington’s ongoing push to strengthen domestic chip production while limiting exports of advanced technology to China. Nvidia’s stock jumped on the news, reinforcing its dominant position in the global AI race. Analysts say this collaboration underscores how artificial intelligence has become a key pillar of U.S. industrial policy — and a central driver of the next phase of tech innovation.

Despite all the uncertainty — from rate cuts to global tensions — U.S. equity markets have held surprisingly steady. The S&P 500 remains near record highs, supported by strong tech earnings and optimism about easier monetary policy ahead. Still, some strategists warn that corporate profits could come under pressure if the shutdown continues or if global demand softens further. For now, investors appear to be betting that lower interest rates will keep stocks afloat through the end of the year.

In summary, the big story this week is one of mixed signals. The Federal Reserve is easing rates, but with limited data. Consumers are cautious, but housing and stocks show resilience. The global economy is slowing, yet technology continues to drive optimism. It’s a moment of transition — between inflation fears and growth hopes, between policy uncertainty and innovation momentum.

That’s it for today’s economic roundup.
You’ve been listening to Treaz Daily — your source for calm, clear updates on the world of finance and markets.

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